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The CURA publications library is currently being digitized by the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy. When the project is complete, the entire CURA publications library will be online and fully searchable. Unfortunately, during this process we are not able to honor individual requests for publications . Additionally, we no longer have physical copies of publications to send out.

New publications are digitized daily and the publications catalog on the CURA website is not automatically updated with links to scanned copies, so please search the CURA collection at the Digital Conservancy for the publications you are looking for:

An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA. A Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report.

Kehoe, Timothy J.

This report uses data to evaluate the performance of three of the most prominent multisectoral static applied general equilibrium (GE) models that were used to predict the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). These models drastically underestimated the impact of NAFTA on North American trade. Furthermore, the models failed to capture much of the relative impacts on different sectors. Ex-post performance evaluations of applied GE models are essential if policy makers are to have confidence in the results produced by these models. Analyzing sectoral trade data indicates that a new theoretical mechanism for generating trade in the models is needed--a mechanism in which large increases in trade can take place in product categories with little or no previous trade. To capture changes in macroeconomic aggregates, the models need to be able to capture changes in productivity.

Publication date: 
Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Funded by a grant from CURA's Faculty Interactive Research Program.
52 pp.
Online availability
CURA call number: